Back in November, I began playing with my SPM ratings to run game and full-season simulations. Although what I was doing was new, the results were essentially the same as my rankings introduced at the beginning of the year, as I essentially used the same rating methodology. Yet, I had the methodology to rate teams … Continue reading Introducing a New NBA Model
These are the most recent NBA rankings, accounting for new contracts before season start.
With the fluctuations in the salary cap over the past few seasons, the boom and bust cycle has led to great disparity in contracts. We saw Portland throw money at Evan Turner and Allen Crabbe because they could, only to pretty much give Crabbe away to free up some cash. There are many stories like … Continue reading The Best Assets in the NBA
After a wild offseason, it was obvious that I needed to revisit the predictions I made back in July. After accounting for final cuts and acquisitions, I re-ran the numbers on teams, and the updates are here: A few teams stick out, and I will briefly address them below. First, the San Antonio Spurs. I … Continue reading Updated NBA Predictions
Being a few hours away from the advent of the NFL season, I figure most people have already drafted their fantasy football teams. I admittedly was a little late posting my own projections, but finally got around to it. I’ve been busy trying to get a job, and will be on a bit of a … Continue reading 2017 Fantasy Football Projections
Last week, I shared projections for player performance in the 2017-18 season. These projections weren’t perfect, but in general, they were useful. They expected young players like Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins, and Kristaps Porzingis to take steps forward while older players like Vince Carter and Jason Terry would take steps back. To get a more … Continue reading Team Projections for the 2017-18 Season
One of the harder things about being a statistically savvy NBA fan is that there is no one be-all end-all metric like baseball’s WAR that basketball fans can point to. There are a variety of stats, of which I have written a fair amount about, but they all seem to have different ways of trying … Continue reading 2018 NBA Player Projections